A 2021 Financial Outlook
William E. Riley
“The Future Ain't What It Used To Be.” -Yogi Berra
This is one of the most challenging articles I have ever written. If we look at where we were a year ago and where we are now, I feel like I have been in a "Twilight Zone" episode. Everything that was supposed to go right this time last year evaporated by the middle of March. While this is true — this is old news — and we must look for that light at the end of the tunnel. Yogi has always been more insightful than he gets credit for, and yes, the future will be different.
The effects of COVID-19 will not just evaporate with a shot in the arm. Our culture has changed. Our investments have changed. And our priorities have changed. For example, we as a firm are investing in new technology to better serve you and meet your needs. This time last year, I didn't even know what Zoom was, and now I use it regularly. We are modernizing our equipment and conference room so we can provide better quality, whether in person or virtually.
We have had some changes in personnel at the firm. After 27 years, my assistant Robin has retired, which she rightly deserves. Replacing her is Clarion Hess, who I am very excited about and has already impacted the organization. Clarion holds a Master's Degree from MIT and brings a much-needed skill set to our organization. She is anxious to begin her career in the financial services industry and to relieve me of management responsibilities to give me more time to do what I love — working with clients.
We have started two new sister companies. Riley Insurance Designs will help our clients with annuity, life insurance, Medicare and long-term care needs. The latest and most exciting addition is Riley Private Client, LLC, which will offer advanced-planning services.
We have also created some new portfolios for “the future ain’t what it use to be” theme. I will be reviewing accounts and sending information to clients as we assess current allocations. One of the priorities of portfolio changes for the future is stricter risk management. Our goal is to provide the highest return at the lowest risk possible, and a reduction in fees, where possible.
Now, here’s what everyone's been waiting for: Where do we go from here in the markets? As you know, I stay away from predictions and pay more attention to observations. So let's get started.
- History on our side. Markets should be positive. How positive? My observation: If you are correctly allocated, you may be pleasantly surprised.
- Interest rates should go up. Ten-year treasuries should rise above 1%.
- Taxes may not change this year, but don't hold your breath.
- The price of oil will go up. I will give up my reasons for thinking this later.
- Sectors related to infrastructure will provide safer returns than some of the more volatile ones of last year.
- The stay-at-home sector will still be in vogue.
- Don't forget about foreign and emerging markets. They should make a comeback, and it may have already started.
By now, you may be asking yourself, who is this Bill guy?
Forty years ago, I moved to Colleyville. Growing up on a ranch in Mansfield, Texas, I spent my youth in the Fort Worth area and graduated from TCU. I have observed many changes in the Mid-Cities, and it has been exciting and rewarding. The demographics of the area have evolved to one of the highest incomes per capita in the country. Success and Southlake practically go hand in hand!
Now with the COVID-19 crisis during the past year, many of the successful people in the area have discovered they don’t need to travel to Dallas or Fort Worth to do business. This was one of the main reasons I decided to relocate my practice to Southlake — to provide a nearby, more personalized and exclusive financial service and to focus on each individual in a family atmosphere.
My goal for the people of Southlake and the immediate area is to fill a need by providing a different type of financial services experience. It will not only be personalized and results-oriented, it will also have an emphasis on sustainable and risk-averse investment disciplines.
“The future ain’t what it used to be” has never been more true than it is today. Our future will be different, so we must adapt. However, there will be many more positives than negatives. We will experience different lifestyles, and our priorities will change. Productivity will increase, and stress will decrease. Once the COVID-19 crisis is over, I see our future as different, but great.
